EU Libya diplomacy could eventually stop migrants
European support for Libya's unity government could stop migrant flows, but only in the long term
UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond today made a surprise visit to Tripoli to support the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). His trip follows those of the French and German foreign ministers on April 16 and Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni's on April 12. European powers hope to resolve the political deadlock that has seen Libya split by two competing governments. However, the legitimate legislature under the Libya Political Agreement, the House of Representatives, has yet to approve the GNA. Repeated attempts to hold a vote have failed, although another vote is scheduled for today and there is some optimism that it may be successful.
Our judgement
European states have thrown their weight behind the GNA to install a single government that will counter the Islamic State group and check the inflow of migrants from Libya into Europe. However, the success in closing the Balkan route is unlikely to be repeated this summer in Libya given the GNA's daunting task in improving security. However, international pressure appears to be helping to stabilise Libya and could stop migrant flows in the long term.
See LIBYA: Halting migrant flows to Europe will take years - April 20, 2015.