Italian economic data could help Renzi
Some undecided voters could be convinced by positive growth and employment figures
Italy's economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2016 and the unemployment rate fell from 11.7% in September to 11.6% in October, according to data released by the country's statistics office Istat today. Istat also revised its GDP growth figures for the second quarter, reporting an expansion of 0.1% rather than stagnation. Moreover, a report by research company IHS Markit shows that Italy's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose from 50.9 in October to 52.2 in November. These figures come three days before the constitutional reform referendum -- to which Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has linked his political future -- takes place on December 4. Former Prime Minister Romano Prodi yesterday backed Renzi's plans and said that he would vote in their favour.
Our judgement
Although a 'no' victory remains the most likely outcome, the high proportion of undecided voters, the possibility of 'shy yes-voters' and the impact of around 1.5 million Italian expatriates eligible to vote but not reached by polling mean that it is not a foregone conclusion. The positive economic figures, along with fears of a banking crisis, could help convince some of the undecided voters to support Renzi.
see ITALY: Referendum 'no' vote could trigger crisis - October 24, 2016