Schulz is unlikely to change German balance of power
Despite their popular leader and rising support in polls, the Social Democrats are unlikely to lead the next government
Support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) rose to 28% -- the highest value since the 2013 general election and 8 percentage points more than in January -- according to an ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll released yesterday. The SPD has been gaining in polls since former party leader Sigmar Gabriel surprisingly announced on January 24, that he would step down, paving the way for former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz to take over as party leader and challenge Chancellor Angela Merkel in the general election in September. Schulz enjoys high popularity ratings: 50% of respondents indicated that they would vote for him if they could elect the chancellor directly -- compared with 34% who would vote for Merkel.
Our judgement
Almost all other parties lost support to the SPD as Schulz -- who, unlike Gabriel, is not associated with the grand coalition -- presents a credible alternative to Merkel. Whether he can sustain this boost will depend on his domestic policies, which are still largely unknown. In any case, the balance of power is unlikely to shift as a coalition with the Greens and the Left Party -- which may be the only option for the SPD to lead a government -- remains highly unlikely.
see GERMANY: Economic recovery may remain anaemic - January 13, 2017