Large African economies to shoulder migration burden
Political volatility will drive African asylum-seekers to rich states, but overall migration is mainly intra-continental
Source: UN Population Division, UN High Commission for Refugees, World Bank, OECD
Outlook
Spikes in asylum applications from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are fuelling immigration anxieties in rich countries. However, most migration remains intra-continental, with a few large economies -- especially South Africa, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Kenya -- receiving a disproportionate share. Such migrants tend to originate in nearby states and remit incomes 'home', supporting smaller peripheral economies.
Yet, high immigrant concentrations increase competition for income generating opportunities. Where this combines with a poor economic performance it can drive anti-immigrant violence, eg the xenophobic violence in South Africa in April. Emigration from SSA will track political instability, with rises possible in the coming months from Burundi, Guinea, Congo-Kinshasa and other states facing political crises.
Impacts
- Migration out of SSA exacerbates skills shortages -- one in every nine Africans with a tertiary education lives outside the continent.
- Eritrean migrants avoiding national service will seek refuge in the EU, possibly prompting shifts on asylum eligibility in some EU states.
- US, EU and South African efforts to tighten immigration rules could incentivise informal, risky practices, such as people smuggling.
- Immigrants are especially vulnerable to clampdowns in oil-producers, eg Angola and Congo-Brazzaville, where the price shock has hit growth.