UK election heralds fundamental change and challenges
Not all these sources of political instability can happen following the May 7 vote, but they show the critical moments
Outlook
Barring a late sharp shift in public opinion, today's election is likely to produce an unstable House of Commons, with both the fate of the United Kingdom and the country's status in the EU left uncertain.
Both Conservatives and Labour may struggle to come close enough to an outright majority to form a reasonably secure minority government alone. Governing will be difficult. The chances of an early repeat election have risen.
Impacts
- Future calculations will depend on whether parties see multiparty politics as the new normal, or can see a return to one-party majorities.
- The Liberal Democrats' position will be critical to determining the next government.
- Scotland's political and fiscal position in the United Kingdom will come under further strain whoever governs.
- As parties seek to deliver unrealistic campaign pledges, borrowing goals are set to be missed. Defence budgets will stay squeezed.