Fragmentation will hinder peace efforts in Libya

Outlook

Libya's militia groups have coalesced into two broad camps -- the Dignity and Dawn blocs -- but even within these camps, they are far from unified. Towns are competing against other towns, tribes against each other, ideological groupings against everyone -- and all vying for influence and access to the state's oil wealth.

This will hinder efforts to stabilise the country: no group has the capability to force consensus but can effectively veto any stabilisation efforts by acting as a spoiler.

Impacts

• The Thinni government has used international support for the House of Representatives as a reason to avoid reaching out to the Dawn bloc.
• Overt Egyptian and Turkish support for Dignity and Dawn respectively will encourage retrenchment of the blocs' positions.
• The emerging split within the Central Bank of Libya and the National Oil Corporation could result in unprecedented looting of assets.
• Countries with high fuel subsidies may use falling prices as an opportunity to withdraw support for consumers.
• Incentives for compromise may increase if both sides were to lose access to state assets.