Insecurity mars China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The 46 billion dollar corridor is the most ambitious symbol of strengthening China-Pakistan ties
Source: Pakistan Ministry of Finance, US National Counterterrorism Center, US Department of State, Institute for Economics and Peace
Outlook
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) promises new transport links, jobs and trade opportunities to Pakistan. Yet even before key details such as time-frame are finalised, barriers to the project are mounting. Pakistan’s promise of a dedicated 10,000-strong security force for CPEC installations may offer some reassurance, but insecurity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan is acute and widespread. Islamabad shows no sign of devising, let alone implementing, a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy. Moreover, Pakistan will struggle to invest in CPEC, especially if it maintains its stance on not financing CPEC with public debt, which already stands at 61.2% of GDP. Financing shortfall on the Pakistani side will widen the gap between promised and realised Chinese investment.
Impacts
- Regardless of its overall success, the CPEC is likely to become yet another thorn in India's relations with China and Pakistan.
- Attacks against Chinese workers in Balochistan are likely; Islamabad's failure to protect Chinese citizens will carry diplomatic costs.
- Bureaucratic delays and cost overruns are almost inevitable, as is graft; Beijing will have greater tolerance for the latter.