China cannot yet challenge US power
China is gaining on the United States on many fronts, but the gap is substantial, sometimes vast
Source: WIPO, SJR, OECD, World Bank, Trading Economics, UNCTAD, SWIFT, Standard Chartered, (US: OECD; China: David Shambaugh estimate), The Military Balance 2015 (IISS), FAS, US Department of State, US DOD, BBC World Service Poll, Interbrand, Entgroup (China), World Tourism Organisation
Outlook
When Beijing speaks of a 'new type of great power relations' between China and the United States, the message is implicit that China qualifies as a great power.
Yet China matches the United States in little besides narrowly economic criteria, and in some measures it is orders of magnitude behind.
The gap is narrowing, but the rapid pace of China's development -- often from a low base -- creates a temptation to overestimate the country's present capabilities.
Impacts
- Overestimating China's strength could prompt premature and counterproductive efforts to exploit, accommodate or balance it.
- The prospect of China ousting the United States as the world's pre-eminent power is remote.
- China's military will challenge the United States in Asia long before it rivals it globally.
- Use of the renminbi will burgeon if China opens its capital account, but there is little prospect of it replacing the dollar.
- Public opinion could press China to overreach in asserting what its citizens see as their country's 'rightful' place in the world order.