Russia's Asian pivot will not be plain sailing

Outlook

Russia's relationship with China will be defined by energy and defence cooperation. Inter-military cooperation will grow as Moscow and Beijing see benefit in such relations as a way of countering the United States. Russia will seek to invite increasing numbers of Asia-Pacific countries to align with its Eurasian Economic Union.

While the Kremlin currently sees China as a strategic partner, Moscow is eager to bolster its influence in Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a riposte to China's New Silk Road and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiatives. Moscow's Asia-Pacific strategy will not be simple. Low oil prices and economic slowdown will prove problematic. Additionally, Moscow may be faced with tough policy choices as tensions grow in the South China Sea.

Impacts

• Putin to meet Laos president during China visit on September 3 to further develop strategic cooperation.
• Russia's relations with Turkmenistan are set to worsen further as both are now rivals for China's gas market.
• Western arms embargo may hinder Russian military cooperation with Vietnam and other regional states.
• Burgeoning security relationship with Beijing may complicate Russia's strong ties with India.