Crucial polls will determine Myanmar's future

Outlook

Myanmar will hold national and local elections on November 8, its first nationwide polls since 2010. The elections are being closely scrutinised internationally and domestically, and are regarded as a bellwether of the country's democratic transition after 49 years of military rule.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) is likely to push the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party into second place. Despite this, no party is likely to win an overall majority, probably necessitating a coalition government. However, with 25% of legislative seats reserved for it, the military will still be able to influence the post-election political agenda and veto constitutional reforms that the NLD and ethnic groups seek.

Impacts

• Until a post-election coalition is devised, crucial political and business reforms will be delayed.
• If the polls are internationally regarded as 'unfair', Myanmar will face diplomatic frictions and may lose donor support.
• Ethnic groups could feel disenfranchised by the election process; pre- and post-election unrest is likely.
• Polls perceived as 'fair' would presage a stable government, and increased foreign investment.