Saudi Arabia, Iran will determine Syrian war's outcome
Russia has bolstered an Iranian-led bloc fighting to ensure the Assad regime's survival
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
Saudi Arabia and Iran are the key external actors in Syria's civil war. Almost every outside player falls into either Iran's pro-Assad camp, or Saudi Arabia's anti-Assad camp.
However, the emergence of secondary conflicts, namely the competing state-building projects of Islamic State group (ISG) and Syria's Kurds, has divided the anti-Assad coalition. Washington's priority is now fighting ISG, while Turkey's is to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish state.
The coalition has also been handicapped by internal divisions over supporting Islamist rebels, and by its lack of reliable ground troops. By contrast, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are united behind Assad and have deployed their own ground forces to support him.
Impacts
- The pro-Assad bloc's stronger military commitment will ensure the regime can fight on for several more years.
- It will also weaken the anti-Assad rebels, thereby strengthening ISG and other global jihadist groups.
- Russian intervention will prompt Saudi Arabia to channel more aid to the rebels, but this will not be enough to threaten Assad.
- The outcome of the anti-Assad rebellion will determine the broader balance of power in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia.