Anti-immigration parties to shape policy and politics

Outlook

Even before this year's refugee/migrant crisis, in several West European states anti-immigration parties had built a voting base over the longer term. Like Austria's Freedom Party, which took 31% in Vienna's October 11 election, such parties may do especially well where they are out of government and the refugee/migrant influx is large. Differentiated local experiences of the influx will add to the factors that often make anti-immigration parties strong at sub-national level.

Nationally, such parties exert most leverage where governments need their votes, but they will affect the policy environment even elsewhere. For business, this will increase uncertainty about free movement of goods and people, and access to immigrant labour.

Impacts

• Internal EU asylum-seeker relocation, now underway, will increase arrivals and risk further fusing anti-immigration and anti-EU sentiment.
• The French FN's Marine Le Pen has recently regained ground and is set to win Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie in December's regional polls.
• In 2016, no national elections are due in states with major anti-immigration parties, but the United Kingdom might hold its EU referendum.
• Immigration and asylum handling could be especially sensitive in 2017, with the French and German elections either side of the summer.