Myanmar: 'Nationwide' ethnic peace will lag election
Eight ethnic groups have signed up to negotiate for peace, but the November 8 election interregnum complicates any deal
Source: BBC; Myanmar Peace Monitor; Oxford Analytica; Xinhua
Outlook
Since 1948, Myanmar has suffered internal conflicts between its military and various ethnic armed groups (EAGs) seeking devolved political power. Building on bilateral ceasefires with some, President Thein Sein's government sought a 'nationwide' ceasefire before November 8's elections. Yet only eight of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team's 16 EAGs signed up on October 15. They will now discuss a political settlement (though the government may soon change). The remainder are outside the peace process, for now.
The BBC/Myanmar Peace Monitor estimate 48,000 EAG fighters are outside the process, versus 16,000 within. Some are skirmishing with the military (it has more than 400,000 personnel), particularly in Kachin and Shan States. The military's internal security efforts could enflame frictions.
Impacts
- Skirmishing will hinder conducting the election in affected areas, likely stoking concern over the vote's credibility.
- China-Myanmar relations could suffer further friction, if skirmishing near China's border increases.
- Internal security concerns will continue after the election, potentially limiting much-needed foreign investment pledges.
- The military will be wary of EAGs' devolution demands, implying a tough, protracted political dialogue.