Putin will face numerous challenges in 2016
Threats outnumber political opportunities for the Russian president next year
Source: IHS, Oxford Analytica, Russian Central Bank, media articles, SIPRI, The Moscow Times
Outlook
Putin's challenges are numerous. While he remains popular, he is also encumbered by a struggling economy that continues to suffer under sanctions and low oil prices.
In September 2016, Putin faces a new test of his popularity in Duma (lower house) elections. His United Russia party should perform well. However, the official opposition such as the Communists may strive to take advantage of spending cuts.
Also, Putin faces the challenges of avoiding Russia getting further embroiled in a dangerous war in Syria and trying to restrain his proxies in Ukraine's Donbas region. Ukraine's rebels will continue to pose a challenge to the Russian leader for as long as they risk reigniting a conflict that at present Moscow wants to keep simmering, not boiling.
Impacts
- Kogalymavia Sinai crash and Russian flight ban to Egypt may complicate Moscow's relationship with Cairo.
- Provisional Olympic ban following allegations of state sponsored athletic doping is a blow to Russia's image.
- Moscow will continue courting China and attempt to strengthen its Eurasian Economic Union.
- Syria campaign costs Russia $2-4 mn per day. Costs may grow. SIPRI estimates Russia defence spending (2014) at $84 bn.