Fall in Central-East European voting may bottom out

Outlook

The Slovak government is expected to win re-election on March 5, with a reasonable turnout for Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) of about 60%, given rising turnouts in two previous elections. For migration to be a motivating election issue, voters would need to want a change of government, but Prime Minister Robert Fico has already adopted a migrant-sceptic position.

It will hardly compare with the 96% who voted in the first post-communist election in 1990. A pattern of early-1990s enthusiasm followed by a slump and gradual recovery applies across CEE; it seems reasonable to assume that it is due to inevitable disillusion with democratic politics as the novelty wore off and that CEE will eventually align with West European voting patterns.

Impacts

• Public disengagement with politics has been linked to low party membership, yet France combines high turnouts and less than 2% membership.
• Animated by enthusiasm for reform, Romania's turnout in 2016 could rise from its 2012 nadir, as in the 2014 presidential election.
• Compulsory voting explains the Luxembourg, Belgium and Cyprus turnouts but not the 63.6% of Greeks voting in January and 56.6% in September.