Ambitious plans set China's course to 2049
Long-term goals shape thinking of current policymakers in and outside China despite vulnerability to 'black swans'
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
Beyond the 'forecasting horizon' of a few years, the 'black swans' or 'unknown unknowns' will become the decisive factors determining China's political and economic development.
A key uncertainty is that all China's targets, goals and deadlines rest on the fundamental assumption that the People's Republic continues to exist as a one-party state with its current political system more or less intact. This looks likely at present but is not guaranteed.
Nevertheless, even if future targets and expectations prove inaccurate, they will still shape the thinking, priorities and decisions of key actors today.
Impacts
- Long-term planning is an advantage of an authoritarian political system only if that system remains stable.
- Changes of plan are less likely to be explicit than in a multi-party system, in order to preserve a facade of unity.
- Explicit goals and timetables guide actors in China, but will also provoke reactions overseas that could interfere with Beijing's plans.
- A key uncertainty is whether Xi will hold onto power beyond his allotted term, but this is unlikely to alter the basic policy direction.