Philippines politics will be turbulent in 2016

The Philippines needs a strong new president from May 2016, but the presidential race is already fractious

Popularity polling ahead of the election has identified five leading presidential candidates

Source: Social Weather Stations; BusinessWorld; Rappler; PhilStar; Oxford Analytica

Outlook

More than 18,000 national and local-level elected posts will be contested on May 9, including the presidency, vice presidency, twelve senate seats, 81 governor and deputy-governorships and hundreds of mayor and deputy-mayor positions.

The election's results, particularly the presidency, will determine what continues of President Benigno Aquino's 'straight path' -- good governance, public investment and investor-friendly measures that have contributed to over 6% GDP growth annually since 2012.

The presidential race is already fierce while the candidates face challenges: Roxas and Duterte have sparred publicly, Binay's camp faces graft probes and Poe is fighting her provisional disqualification by the election commission.

Impacts

  • Unless they can hurdle claims filed against their electoral eligibility, Poe and/or Duterte could yet be finally disqualified.
  • The presidential race will probably be close; votes for 'minor' candidates could be key.
  • These factors make challenges to the result and popular unrest likely, with consequent policy uncertainty.
  • Investors may delay pledges until the policy outlook stabilises; geopolitical rival China may seek to take advantage.

See also