Philippines politics will be turbulent in 2016
The Philippines needs a strong new president from May 2016, but the presidential race is already fractious
Source: Social Weather Stations; BusinessWorld; Rappler; PhilStar; Oxford Analytica
Outlook
More than 18,000 national and local-level elected posts will be contested on May 9, including the presidency, vice presidency, twelve senate seats, 81 governor and deputy-governorships and hundreds of mayor and deputy-mayor positions.
The election's results, particularly the presidency, will determine what continues of President Benigno Aquino's 'straight path' -- good governance, public investment and investor-friendly measures that have contributed to over 6% GDP growth annually since 2012.
The presidential race is already fierce while the candidates face challenges: Roxas and Duterte have sparred publicly, Binay's camp faces graft probes and Poe is fighting her provisional disqualification by the election commission.
Impacts
- Unless they can hurdle claims filed against their electoral eligibility, Poe and/or Duterte could yet be finally disqualified.
- The presidential race will probably be close; votes for 'minor' candidates could be key.
- These factors make challenges to the result and popular unrest likely, with consequent policy uncertainty.
- Investors may delay pledges until the policy outlook stabilises; geopolitical rival China may seek to take advantage.