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Geography will drive China's navy into South China Sea

Thursday, February 11, 2016

China is building a fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, to be based at Hainan Island in the South China Sea

The South China Sea offers Chinese nuclear-armed submarines better access to the Pacific than the East China Sea

Source: Oxford Analytica

Outlook

China's nuclear-armed submarines require access to the Pacific Ocean in order to offer a credible second-strike deterrent to the United States. Shallow water, few alternative routes, and a concentration of US and Japanese anti-submarine forces make the traditional access point through the East China Sea unattractive, so the Chinese navy will shift its focus to the South China Sea, which offers deeper water, a wider, less-well-defended access point through the Luzon Strait, and a greater number of alternative routes.

Impacts

  • The construction of military facilities in the Spratly Islands could link the submarine issue with maritime disputes.
  • The need to access the Indian Ocean also weighs in favour of a South China Sea-based submarine fleet.
  • Singapore will therefore be the most important US partner in South-east Asia, controlling Chinese access to the Indian Ocean.

See also