Syria conflict will reshape regional security order
The civil war is turning in Assad's favour -- and its impact will be felt across the region and beyond
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
With Russian and Iranian support, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is set to defy the odds and defeat the insurgency around Aleppo. If it succeeds in consolidating its gains, the regime will be on course to secure a viable 'rump state' in western Syria. This will have repercussions for the many external players with a stake in the civil war, and for the secondary conflicts involving Islamic State group (ISG) and the Syrian Kurds.
Most importantly, a win for Assad will alter the security dynamics in the Levant in favour of Russia and Iran, and constitute a strategic defeat for the rebels' backers -- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the United States.
Impacts
- Defeat for the Sunni-dominated rebels will stoke regional anti-Shia sentiment and Sunni radicalisation, increasing the terrorism threat.
- Setbacks in Syria will see Saudi Arabia intensify efforts to secure Yemen and consolidate its military alliance with Sunni Muslim states.
- Iran's asymmetric military advantage over Israel and the Gulf states will increase.
- Absorbing refugee populations will place long-term strain on economies in Europe and the Middle East.