South Caucasus entangled in Russian-Turkish standoff

Outlook

The Russian-Turkish confrontation over Syria is affecting the South Caucasus, a heavily armed and tense region where Armenia is allied with Moscow and Azerbaijan is aligned with Ankara despite its defence and other ties with Russia.

This month's deployment of more fighter jets at Russia's airbase in Armenia, plus details of a 200-million-dollar loan for Yerevan to buy more weapons, underscores the country's emerging role as a heavily militarised outpost near Turkey's border. Armenia's already poor relationship with Turkey will worsen as Ankara begins to view it as Moscow's proxy.

Tensions in the wider region increase the risk of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, an unrecognised state governed by an Armenian administration since war with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Peace talks continue and a ceasefire holds despite frequent gunfire.

Impacts

• An accidental or deliberate escalation of Azerbaijani-Armenian clashes will be difficult for external states to contain.
• Falling oil income will reduce Azerbaijan's arms purchases and its ability to use military strength as leverage in Karabakh talks.
• In its role as Moscow's main security partner, Yerevan will find it harder to pursue separate foreign and trade policies.