Latin America's 'shadow governance' zones are unstable

Outlook

State weakness is both a cause and symptom of shadow governance. That is compounded by geographical factors, as well as extortion and corruption, which allow non-state groups to infiltrate legitimate institutions.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) often provide jobs, health services and security where the government cannot. However, with both groups now in peace talks, the stability of their territories is uncertain. If the government fails to fill power vacuums, criminal organisations such as the Urabenos will move in.

In Mexico, the rise of new cartels, as well as killings and arrests of cartel leaders, threatens fragmentation and turf wars in territories where relative stability has hitherto been maintained.

Impacts

• Colombia cannot afford the development work necessary to instil state-governance nationwide, and will require foreign financial assistance.
• The Urabenos' strength and the potential for new crime groups to emerge suggests a probable uptick in violence as the guerrillas make peace.
• Hardline security policies in Mexico will antagonise and structurally weaken cartels, perpetuating and potentially worsening violence.
• A recent self-imposed truce could see El Salvador's gangs regroup or move towards more sophisticated governance of their territories.