Russian navy will grow assertive despite ageing fleet

Outlook

After decay in the 1990s, the Russian navy is modernising, although an ambitious shipbuilding programme has progressed slowly due to high costs and supply disruptions. Submarine-launched missiles will remain an important part of the nuclear arsenal. The surface fleet will be mainly deployed in Russia's immediate environs, as having the capacity to emulate the US navy's blue-water reach is a long way off.

The focus will be in western regions: confronting NATO in the Baltic, seeking Arctic dominance and projecting power in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean, from where warships will provide airspace defence over Syria while delivering a clear statement of Russian power.

Impacts

• Procurement of large new combat vessels will run well beyond the 2020 deadline.
• Ageing cruisers will be kept in service for their impressive presence and ability to carry modern air-defence missiles.
• The Syrian base at Tartus will be protected at all costs as Russia's only major naval facility abroad.
• A family of cruise missiles will provide an effective way of extending Russia's reach.