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Deeper EU integration will be unlikely

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Although attitudes towards the EU vary, most Europeans believe it would be hurt by a 'Brexit'

"If the UK were to leave the European Union, do you think this would be a good thing or a bad thing for the EU?"

Source: Pew Research Centre

Outlook

Although Euroscepticism is evident in all countries included in the study, support for an 'ever closer union' is nowhere lower than in the United Kingdom, with only Greece and Poland coming close.

Regardless of the result of the 'Brexit' referendum on June 23, the EU will need to undergo reform and create a convincing political vision to win back public support. Until then, further integration is unlikely and Eurosceptic parties, both from the left and the right of the political spectrum, are likely to continue increasing their support base.

Impacts

  • A 'Brexit' could trigger exit debates in other European countries such as Denmark, France and the Netherlands.
  • In case of a 'Brexit', the EU might make an example of the United Kingdom to discourage other countries from leaving.
  • The success of Eurosceptic parties may lead mainstream parties to embrace similar positions.
  • France and Germany may seek to delay controversial EU policies until after next year's elections.

See also