South-east Asian instability flashpoints may multiply

Outlook

This is a critical time for South-east Asia: the region's economies and physical and cyber infrastructure are integrating -- for instance under the ASEAN Economic Community -- for which public, private and foreign investment is needed.

However, governments face an array of domestic and international political, security and economic flashpoints -- some are emerging, others are well established. These include terrorist threats with links to the Middle East (Islamic State group and its supporters); the economic effects of low commodity prices; China's slowing growth and now Brexit; maritime disputes and domestic political instability.

Impacts

• Led by Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, regional governments will strengthen anti-terrorism capacity, with overseas help.
• ASEAN will struggle to maintain unity in its approach to China; the bloc's integration may suffer.
• Commodity-exporting governments will try to balance popular spending demands with economic realities.
• International pressure for human rights to be protected will grow.
• A US presidential election victory for Donald Trump would likely see less defence support for South-east Asia.