Russia's ruling party ahead despite blame for economy

Outlook

The United Russia party held primaries over the summer to clear out some of the old guard and present a fresher face in the September 18 elections to the State Duma.

President Vladimir Putin needs the party to win but is also happy for United Russia and its leader, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, to be the targets of public resentment over falling living standards, economic decline and corruption.

Thanks to his foreign adventures, Putin consistently rides higher in popularity polls than Medvedev, the cabinet or United Russia. Labour unrest, not political opposition, is the major headache for Putin. His National Guard will be ready to crush any political unrest.

Impacts

• Despite its revamp, United Russia will struggle to get an absolute majority.
• The elections will be orchestrated as an upbeat show of Russian unity and defiance of the outside world.
• The Liberal Democrats and Communists are assured of Duma seats and will vie for second place, although this matters little.
• The Parnas, Progress and Yabloko parties will be invisible except to their liberal electorate, or when they are targeted by smears.