Constitutional changes may spur African unrest
Recent attempts to alter constitutions have triggered unrest in sub-Saharan Africa, but that may not always be the case
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
Reactions to constitutional amendments will vary by location. Weak political leaders will confront violent opposition to reforms and may rely on alternative means for remaining in power. Either way, political unrest (and possibly violence) could follow.
Not all constitutional changes are destabilising. Amendments by strong and popular leaders or changes that improve the political process may help to ensure stability in the coming years.
Success in amending rules to the benefit of incumbents could persuade other leaders to move the goalposts. Whether future changes are successful and peaceful will depend on multiple factors, including the strength and popularity of leaders, loyalty of armed services and the scope of proposed amendments.
Impacts
- The high proportion of youth in many countries may become disillusioned with political systems which are seen as closed.
- Where changes entrench power and strengthen the executive, Western democratic norms will further erode.
- Leaders planning similar changes, such as Yoweri Museveni, will draw lessons from successful and failed constitutional changes.