Post-Brexit EU security policy to be more constrained
Brexit means the loss of a key member state with an active and outward-looking security policy stance
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
A post-Brexit EU is likely to be a security actor with significant constraints and a strong focus on regional concerns, although efforts to deepen defence cooperation would at least partially offset the loss of UK capacity and could gradually improve EU performance.
In any scenario, how Brexit plays out will be key. NATO is likely to become more important and EU-NATO cooperation is set to intensify, particularly as both seek to improve their ability to address hybrid security challenges.
Impacts
- Deeper defence cooperation will probably be driven by France and Germany.
- The EU is unlikely to have the capability to play a meaningful role in security challenges beyond the Euro-Atlantic region.
- While a reorientation towards Russia is unlikely, Turkey will remain a difficult partner for the EU and NATO.