African population boom will require inclusive growth

Outlook

Population growth will shape social and economic fortunes in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming decades. Capitalising on the youth bulge will require inclusive, rapid economic growth. Services have not created sufficient jobs to match demand; some governments are looking to manufacturing to drive economic growth.

Not all countries will succeed in industrialising. Those with committed policies such as Ethiopia are best placed to capture the benefits of industrialisation.

The Asian experience shows that sub-Saharan countries will need to accelerate and maintain higher levels of economic growth to match the transformative expansion in countries such as South Korea.

Impacts

• The growth imperative may outweigh climate considerations in countries trying to develop quickly.
• Without inclusive growth, the youth bulge could add millions of disaffected citizens with fewer opportunities and less services.
• Agriculture will play an important economic role in the coming years and could also drive growth.
• Uneven development across countries will spur further south-south migration and strain regional plans to facilitate the flow of people.