US foreign policy uncertainty abounds
The realities of office will quickly force President-elect Donald Trump to abandon the vagueness of the campaign trail
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
US allies will seek quick reassurances about President-elect Trump's commitment to Washington's security arrangements, international agreements and participation in multilateral institutions while adversaries will likely take the opportunity to provide an early test of policies ill-defined on the campaign trail.
Moscow, in particular, is likely to exploit Trump's perceived naivete to pressure NATO and Europe and gain ground in Syria. In Beijing, the uncertainty and instability that a Trump victory may bring to regional affairs offsets, for now, at least, any perceived weakening of Washington's international prestige.
Some bilateral relationships, especially those with non-democratic US allies, may improve as a result of a muting of US criticism as a consequence of a hands-off Trump foreign policy.
Impacts
- US security partners in East Asia and NATO will likely pursue greater defence expenditure and deepen ties with like-minded neighbours.
- President Enrique Pena Nieto's near- impossible task of mending US relations could end his party's hopes in Mexico's 2018 elections.
- In Africa, relationships predicated on security will outweigh social and democratic issues.