Russia can calibrate war effort in Syria

Outlook

Moscow is committed to protecting President Bashar al-Assad and delivering air strikes to help his troops capture ground from Syrian rebel groups. The presence of a naval flotilla including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov adds to the offensive power of bombers flying from the Hmeimim base and from Russia. Cruise missiles can now be launched from the Admiral Grigorovich frigate as well as from air and land, while interceptor aircraft and modern missile systems ensure airspace supremacy.

This mixed force has been built up to support the latest offensive against rebel groups but can be scaled back easily when required. It makes Russia's position unassailable without demanding many ground troops.

Impacts

• Commanders can now choose between an array of weapons once Russia focuses on rebel-held Aleppo.
• Western powers will be deterred from 'interfering' in Russia's sphere of influence although they can still attack Islamic State in the east.
• Russia will transform the Tartus naval facility and Hmeimim air base into permanent military bases.
• The Syrian campaign allows Russia to test weapons, train personnel and advertise its arms industry.