French elections are likely to see shift to the right
With a divided Left, the presidential elections may become a competition between the centre-right and the far-right
Source: BVA, Oxford Analytica
Outlook
The left-wing vote in the first round of the elections is likely to be divided between Macron and Melenchon and the candidate of the ruling Socialist Party (who will be chosen on January 22 and 29, with Valls and Montebourg as frontrunners). This means that Fillon and Le Pen are likely to reach the run-off round. Fillon is expected to win, although his social conservatism could prevent him from mobilising left-wing voters.
Polls suggest that unemployment, security, terrorism, the migrant crisis and the recently introduced labour reform have the strongest influence on voting decisions.
Impacts
- A major terrorist attack before the elections could boost support for Le Pen.
- A Fillon or Le Pen victory would make an end of the EU sanctions against Russia more likely.
- Fillon would probably struggle to implement his radical economic policies and encounter fierce resistance from France's powerful unions.