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Trump will face a more precarious global nuclear order

Thursday, January 12, 2017

The president-elect's first term will require deft management of regional disputes weighted with nuclear risks

Global nuclear warhead stocks have fallen from their Cold War highs... but pending items on Washington's policy agenda could increase bilateral nuclear tensions

Source: Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook, Oxford Analytica

Outlook

While President-elect Donald Trump's campaign-trail rhetoric on nuclear weapons raised eyebrows in foreign capitals, his statements on policy once in office will be interpreted -- regardless of his intentions -- as 'red lines' and tests of Washington's credibility as a security guarantor.

Trump's tweeted pledge that Pyongyang's development of a nuclear deterrent capable of reaching the United States "won't happen" may box in Washington's responses to future tests further than the president-elect intends.

Impacts

  • Chinese, Russian and US development of nuclear-capable hypersonic gliders will increase pressure for new state-to-state arms control talks.
  • The end of the US-backed Nuclear Security Summits could see securing nuclear material and sites fall back on the international agenda.
  • Delhi will not sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, further development of ties with Washington notwithstanding.
  • Continued US support of Israel's nuclear opacity may hinder Gulf, Iranian and Turkish buy-in at international non-proliferation talks.

See also