African states will monopolise list of least developed

Outlook

By 2025, the UN projects that the list of LDCs will shorten but be solely comprised of sub-Saharan countries and Haiti.

The recent slowdown in global economic growth has not spared African countries, but economic fortunes across the continent are mixed. Several LDCs (Senegal, Ethiopia, Rwanda) have maintained robust growth, while others (South Sudan, Burundi) have struggled. This could perpetuate two tiers of African LDCs in the coming years: high and low growth.

Rising isolationist sentiments in the West could shift focus away from global inequalities and reinforce persistent questions over the efficacy of aid in spurring development.

Impacts

• Future shocks, such as natural disasters, economic cycles or large-scale conflict, will set back progress among LDCs.
• A demographic boom will require growth and service delivery expansion to outpace population growth in sub-Saharan countries.
• States may fight graduating from LDC status if it risks losing development assistance, support measures and beneficial trade opportunities.