US policy uncertainty reshapes East Asian geopolitics

Outlook

As greater clarity on policies emerges and divisions of responsibility within the Trump administration are delineated, the likely impact on East Asia’s politics, economies and international relationships will become clearer.

Earlier fears that US President Donald Trump’s government would abandon the United States’ regional allies while simultaneously engaging in assertive military behaviour towards China for now look unlikely to be realised.

However, changes in US policy will interact in potentially volatile ways with major changes in domestic politics -- a forthcoming leadership reshuffle in Beijing, a China-sceptic government in Taipei, a presidential impeachment in Seoul, and the administration of a populist president in Manila.

Impacts

• There will be few outright winners and losers; most of the region’s governments will both gain and lose, all in different ways.
• Only for Pyongyang is Trump’s election a clear setback, but its rapidly growing nuclear and missile capabilities will increase its leverage.
• China, and US relations with it, will be key factors in the Trump administration’s impact on all other countries in the region.