Russian trade ties limit scope for Belarus ‘divorce’

Outlook

President Alexander Lukashenka’s prolonged angry tirade against Russia on February 3 vented a litany of frustrations with his long-standing ally. Multiple disputes over trade in oil, gas and foodstuffs have led to talk of Belarus distancing itself from Russia and leaving the Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organisation, although Lukashenka has denied this. Minsk’s relaxation of visa requirements for other countries prompted Moscow to restore de facto border controls.

Bilateral relations look in poor shape, yet economic data show Belarus closely connected to Russia. Manufacturing is heavily geared towards the Russian market, and the state-dominated economy is ill-equipped to open up to western neighbours.

Impacts

• Joint wargames planned for September will test the relationship as large numbers of Russian troops enter Belarus.
• Greater engagement with the EU will be constrained by Belarus’s economic model and democratic limitations.
• Minsk will try to wrest the best possible oil and gas deals but its refineries need crude imports more than Russia needs to sell.
• Lukashenka will consult Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on strategies for containing and placating Russia.