Unseating South Africa’s Zuma will not prove easy

Outlook

South Africa's credit rating has been downgraded to junk status by both Standard & Poor’s (April 3) and Fitch (April 7). Both rating agencies cited the decision by President Jacob Zuma to fire Pravin Gordhan as minister of finance on March 31 in a cabinet reshuffle as a key reason for their latest reviews.

On April 18, South Africa’s opposition parties are scheduled to table a motion of no confidence in the president in parliament in Cape Town. Despite facing calls to resign from two of the ANC’s alliance partners -- the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) -- Zuma has thus far resisted calls to step down.

Three options present themselves to Zuma’s opponents: a “recall” of the president by the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC); parliamentary pressure; and popular protest. All three, however, present significant obstacles.

Impacts

• The chances of a formal oppositional electoral alliance prior to the 2019 election have improved.
• The ANC vote in key metropolitan areas will reduce further in subsequent polls.
• Shelved nuclear plans are likely to be reintroduced, prompting renewed ratings agency concerns over the fiscal ceiling.