Trump agenda rests on taming fractious House politics

Outlook

President Donald Trump has expressed hope that Congress can re-attempt passing healthcare legislation before turning to the tax reform package anticipated by investors.

However, the White House’s failure to bridge tactical, ideological, and factional divisions within the Republican-dominated House of Representatives raises doubts about Trump’s ability to marshal support on Capitol Hill for his legislative priorities.

Trump will have to re-enter contentious negotiations with House Republicans as a president defeated on his first major legislative push when his 2016 election win was a recent memory. While the White House and Congress have a common interest in chalking up a ‘win’ on taxes, intra-Republican divisions could reopen over the deficit, non-defence spending cuts and reforming popular federal entitlements.

Impacts

• Legislators’ willingness to take tough votes requested by the White House will diminish as the 2018 midterms approach.
• Funding from external conservative groups and donors will blunt officeholders’ worries of a Trump-backed primary challenger.
• However, Trump successfully ousting one congressional opponent would prove a powerful demonstration effect to restive Republicans.
• Trump may try to bypass Washington-based Republican Party leaders by approaching state and local officials.