South-east Asia is set to be piracy hotspot yet again
Somali piracy may have surged in early 2017 but is still lagging South-east Asia
Source: International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau (IMB)
Outlook
The sudden spate of attacks off the Horn of Africa in March-April reflects ship operators’ relaxation of vigilance and a reduced international naval presence. Local factors encouraging pirates persist. Yet Somalia is not as chaotic as it was at piracy’s height in 2008-11, nor is it as easy to hold ships and sailors until ransoms are paid. Somali pirates have had scant success so far against ‘hardened’ ships, warship patrols and tougher onshore conditions; this, and the mid-year south-westerly monsoon, could cut short the Somali surge.
Measures were taken against Somali pirates because they preyed upon international shipping plying major shipping lanes; they will only be taken elsewhere if piracy graduates from being a local nuisance.
Impacts
- Judging by reported incidents for the first four months, piracy may this year continue its downward trend from the 2011 peak.
- Yet Nigerian pirates are showing little sign of reducing their activities off West Africa.
- In South-east Asia, the Philippines archipelago may be about to overtake the Indonesian islands as the regional pirate hotspot.
See also
- South-east Asian piracy threat is receding - Apr 26, 2018
- Somali piracy should stay below previous peaks - Apr 21, 2017
- More graphic analysis