Aircraft carriers do not make China a ‘global power’
China’s aircraft carriers are hailed as a sign of military might and ambitions to rival US global power projection
Source: IISS; South China Morning Post; Kyle Mizokami; International Business Times; US Navy; UK Royal Navy
Outlook
China ‘launched’ an indigenous-built aircraft carrier last month, but the vessel is still years away from being fully operational. Even then, the US lead over China in this area will grow as Washington deploys a new generation of carriers.
Possessing aircraft carriers will not set China apart as a ‘global power’, or for the foreseeable future significantly increase its ability to defend its global interests. Indeed, Beijing focuses more narrowly on ‘core interests’ on its periphery, and here its already formidable missile capabilities (including ‘carrier killers’) matter more. China’s own carriers will be of value primarily against weaker adversaries who lack advanced missile capabilities, not against major military powers.
Impacts
- Accidents and setbacks are likely as China gains experience operating its carriers; this will carry a political cost.
- Policymakers will back new carriers of questionable strategic value to create shipbuilding jobs and ‘great power’ symbolism.
- States will invest in anti-access/area-denial (A2AD) missile systems to gain an asymmetric military advantage.
- Given India’s limited domestic defence manufacturing capacity, it will remain a top market for foreign suppliers of advanced kit.