Russia will mix strength and caution to seek respect

Outlook

Foreign policy thinking and actions will reflect Russian efforts to throw off perceptions of it as a ‘second-rate superpower’ and regain global status and respect.

Different interpretations of past events and future intentions will obstruct rapprochement with the West. This is evident in Russia’s claim to a right of retaliation against ‘Western meddling’ and its adherence to the notion of ‘spheres of influence’.

In other regions, foreign relations will reflect hard-headed pragmatism including efforts to sell arms and secure energy deals. Nuclear arms talks offer a unique forum for negotiating parity with the United States.

Impacts

• While professing indifference towards US and EU sanctions, Moscow is keen to end them at minimum or no cost.
• China’s greater military spending is mitigated by its inability to replicate Russian hi-tech including for certain defence items.
• The complexity of Syria will constrain efforts to build on perceived success in forging new Middle Eastern and North African ties.
• Russia is trying to keep Turkey close by and manage differences of interest to avoid complicating its Syrian engagement.