African displacement will grow as instability persists

Outlook

Political volatility and violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) contributed to the largest increase in the number of conflict-related IDPs in 2016, according to a report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).

Growing unrest and IDPs in the Kasais is partly attributable to opposition to President Joseph Kabila’s attempts to stay in power, with ongoing fears that Kabila may delay elections scheduled for later this year

With foreign aid budgets under scrutiny in the United Kingdom and United States, new and growing IDP crises could struggle to receive the necessary funding not only to feed and house displaced populations, but also to ensure their safe long-term repatriation and resettlement.

Impacts

• International focus will remain on refugee flows and repatriation, rather than new IDP crises.
• Modest economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa will hinder regional governments’ ability and willingness to deal with new IDP flows.
• Regional governments will use the care and management of IDP populations as bargaining chips with Western partners.
• Relaxed US military rules of engagement in Somalia could provoke opposition amid potential human rights abuses and new IDP crises.