Saudi Arabia will seek Gulf leadership against Iran

Outlook

Mohammed bin Salman will build on the success of US President Trump’s attendance at the Riyadh summit in May, as he aims to become the key US ally in the Arab and Islamic worlds. This relationship will be grounded on common opposition to both Iran and Sunni political Islamist groups, and bolstered by arms sales and infrastructure investment.

However, Washington’s support for Saudi Arabia’s bold initiatives within the region -- including the confrontation with Qatar, a new war of words against Iran and the Yemen intervention -- could be more rhetorical than practical. Without strong US backing, outcomes satisfactory to Riyadh are likely to prove elusive.

Impacts

• If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef succeeds King Salman as planned, foreign policy could revert to older patterns.
• In the longer term, competition for leadership between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could spark bilateral tensions.
• Another sharp fall in oil prices might force Saudi Arabia to rein in some regional ambitions.
• If the 2015 Iran nuclear deal broke down, the Saudi regional bloc would be exposed to intensified Sunni-Shia confrontation.