Policy flip-flops increasingly isolate Turkey abroad

Outlook

Although the US president is outwardly much more sympathetic to Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan than his predecessor, the two countries are still far apart on Syria. Economic advantage will probably persuade Erdogan to go slow on any further cooling of relations with the EU and its member states.

The failure of its Syria policy may force Turkey to rethink its pretensions as a regional power.

Impacts

• Turkey seems stuck on a combative stance against Kurdish separatism both abroad and at home.
• Islamic State could become more active within Turkey as it is forced out of its ‘caliphate’ in Iraq and Syria.
• The authorities will use foreign policy as a tool to retain popularity at home -- including picking fights with other governments.