Incoherent policy dents South Africa’s global reach

Outlook

Domestic politics are dominating the end of President Jacob Zuma’s tenure, due to finish in 2019. While the ruling party used to pride itself on its regional conflict resolution efforts, diplomatic efforts in South Sudan have taken a back seat to increasingly important cultural and diplomatic links with trade partners such as China and Russia.

Despite South Africa’s economic and political clout, neither Zuma nor his Deputy Cyril Ramaphosa attended a recent African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Zuma’s push for South Africa to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC) has undermined the country’s standing among Western partners.

Impacts

• Election-related crises in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will likely prompt ambivalent responses from Pretoria.
• Corruption revelations involving the Gupta business family could implicate more transnational firms operating in South Africa.
• A further shift towards the BRICS states, rather than the West, will define the end of Zuma’s presidency -- despite internal ANC unease.
• Rising populist and anti-Western rhetoric from the ruling ANC will further dampen foreign investor sentiment.