Marginalisation will sustain smuggling in Libyan south

Outlook

The southern area of Libya, the Fezzan, is a sparsely populated and neglected region. Following the collapse of the state in 2011, the Fezzan’s Arab, Tuareg and Tebu inhabitants have striven to improve their position in society. Muammar al-Qadhafi favoured some southern Arab tribes and neglected others. His Arabisation policy systematically excluded minorities. Investment in their education and services was low and many Tebu and Tuareg lack identity papers and citizenship.

As a result, legitimate economic opportunities are few. The post-2011 chaos has allowed gains to be made from smuggling arms, fuel and people. Competition for these resources and meddling by political actors from northern Libya have caused severe fighting in recent years.

Impacts

• Fighting in the south is likely to recur as northern Libyan meddling shakes fragile equilibria.
• Lack of effective policing, education and legitimate job opportunities will drive local youths to the smuggling industry.
• Extremist and other armed actors are likely to exploit these conditions to recruit.
• The underlying structural factors will spoil Italian and French efforts to collaborate with local groups to stop people-smuggling.