Ports will be central to South Asia’s alliances

Outlook

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative includes a network of maritime facilities in the Indian Ocean, but the ‘string of pearls’ is raising Indian concerns. India is making its own port investments in Myanmar and Iran to counter perceived encirclement.

In India itself, the government in 2015 initiated the Sagarmala project, which includes plans to expand twelve major ports and construct six new ones. Total investment in the scheme is expected to reach 120 billion dollars.

Ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Iran face security risks in the form of insurgencies or protests.

Impacts

• More port investments will bolster crosscutting alliances and increase mutual suspicion between China and India.
• India will face risks to investments in Sittwe and Chabahar from Rohingya and Baloch insurgencies respectively.
• China’s development of Hambantota and Kyaukpyu will face resistance in the form of further local protests.
• India and China may compete to invest in Bangladesh’s Chittagong port.