More Eastern EU migrants may leave as Brexit nears

Outlook

The latest net migration data (with caveats -- provisional and not wholly statistically significant) appear to show the United Kingdom becoming less attractive for all except EU-15 citizens since the Brexit referendum. That the non-EU segment bucks the trend for falling immigration suggests that the changed UK/EU relationship is involved. The EU-15 exception may be connected with more coming for education, compared to EU-10 migrants; it easier to abandon jobs than courses.

Lower EU immigration and higher emigration have mostly accelerated between June 2016 and March 2017, suggesting a rising trend. People may have waited post-Brexit. Fewer EU citizens will probably stay in the United Kingdom, as 2019 approaches and as home economies revive.

Impacts

• UK soft power may diminish internationally because of perceptions since the Brexit referendum of widespread xenophobia.
• Reduced EU-10 migrant labour will particularly affect the UK economy’s retail, hospitality, care home and agricultural sectors.
• The rising UK population, a concern for some, will abate but not reverse because of continuing non-EU net migration.
• Weaker sterling and the slowing UK economy may also play a part in discouraging immigration.