Conflict will mire outlook for East and Central Africa

Outlook

Violence is rising in East and Central Africa’s major conflicts. An upsurge in hostilities in the Central African Republic since March may yet escalate further. The intensity of the new conflict that has emerged in Congo’s Kasai region has drawn comparisons with the country’s devastating second civil war, and adds to long-standing unrest in the country’s east. There is no end in sight to the conflicts in Somalia and South Sudan, which are the deadliest in the Horn of Africa.

Beyond the major conflict zones, low-level political violence will continue to trouble the wider region. Many states will also be deeply affected by unrest in neighbouring countries, with refugee flows placing host nations under extreme economic duress, increasing political pressures to intervene, with both positive and negative effects.

Impacts

• Political solutions to the region’s major conflicts are unlikely in the short to medium term, raising the prospect of continued unrest.
• Neighbouring states may seek to mitigate or influence conflict on their doorstep, but disunity among regional actors will dilute the impact.
• Refugee flows into drought-affected regions such as Kenya and Ethiopia will increase pressures on already-vulnerable host communities.
• Global aid budget crunches will affect humanitarian assistance, most notably in less visible contexts such as Uganda and Tanzania.