East African ports may channel regional tensions

Outlook

In their quest for infrastructure-driven development, East African states are investing heavily in major upgrades to port facilities along the Indian Ocean and Red Sea coasts. However, competition for commerce is also spilling over into political rivalries, as geopolitical realities intervene.

Infrastructure investments and military leasing agreements in African ports by Gulf states have seen countries in the Horn of Africa become drawn in to the ongoing Gulf crisis, creating a foreign policy crisis in Eritrea and a domestic political crisis in Somalia.

Further south, Kenya and Tanzania remain locked in a battle to become East Africa’s main Indian Ocean trade hub, drawing their neighbours into tussles over competing inland transport and trade networks, and complicating efforts at regional integration.

Impacts

• Foreign military operations launched from African ports may have repercussions for hosts.
• Import/export choices made by landlocked African states will have geopolitical consequences for themselves and other regional states.
• Development of inland transport infrastructure will prove as important as port capacity for trade potential.