Survey identifies risks to Modi’s popularity

Outlook

An opinion poll by the Washington-based Pew Research Center published earlier this month showed strong backing in India for PM Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The survey was conducted between February 21 and March 10; well before the sharp rise in criticism of the government that came with news of India’s economic slowdown. Early next year, a similar poll will likely show less favourable results unless the BJP can revive growth.

The poll's findings suggest that the most significant shortcoming in performance -- and therefore the greatest risk to Modi’s popularity -- relates to rising prices.

Impacts

• The Reserve Bank of India is next month likely to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6%, wary of increasing inflation.
• Dharmendra Pradhan, India’s new 'skills minister', will be under pressure to show that the government is creating jobs.
• Any attack in India by militants perceived by Delhi to have Pakistan’s backing may prompt threats of punitive strikes.
• Outbreaks of communal riots may enhance rather than diminish support for the BJP.